Carmelo Anthony pulled the qualification draw balls for the 2027 Basketball World Cup in Doha on Tuesday evening, mapping out the competitive landscape for national teams worldwide, including Ukraine's challenging path to Qatar.
The draw outlined multiple scenarios for Ainars Bagatskis' squad, who must first navigate pre-qualification against Slovakia and Switzerland before even thinking about the main qualification rounds.
"Securing one of the top two spots in pre-qualification is absolutely essential," basketball analysts noted after examining Ukraine's potential pathways.
The draw clearly showed Ukraine must win their pre-qualification group. Finishing second would place them in Group C alongside powerhouses Turkey, Serbia, and Bosnia—a murderous quartet where advancing would be extremely difficult.
However, winning the pre-qualification group would land Ukraine in Group A with Spain, Georgia, and likely either Denmark or Norway (assuming Croatia doesn't unexpectedly finish behind these teams). This scenario looks strikingly similar to Ukraine's previous World Cup qualification group.
Against Georgia, the "blue and yellows" should have a fighting chance. Though lacking stars of Tornike Shengelia's caliber or Georgia's naturalized American players, Bagatskis has a deeper bench at his disposal. The teams split their meetings 1-1 in the previous qualification cycle.
Even Spain presents opportunities. Despite their prestigious status, the Spaniards typically field second or third-string lineups during qualification windows due to the ongoing conflict between FIBA and EuroLeague preventing their top stars from participating. Against such lineups, Ukraine could steal a win, particularly at home.
Against Denmark (likely the fourth team in the group), Ukraine would actually be favorites. The Danes have EuroLeague-caliber Iffe Lundberg and naturalized American Shavon Shields, but lack depth beyond this duo. Norway has even less firepower at the highest level.
Should Ukraine advance, they'd join the top three teams from Group B (Greece, Montenegro, Portugal, and a pre-qualification winner) to compete for three World Cup berths. This configuration actually offers realistic qualification chances.
Greece, like Spain, suffers from the FIBA-EuroLeague conflict, preventing stars from Olympiacos and Panathinaikos from participating regularly. NBA superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo won't be available either. Montenegro presents a challenge similar to Georgia, with aging star Bojan Dubljevic and several naturalized Americans, but remains beatable.
Portugal represents unfinished business for Ukraine. The relatively modest team recently denied Ukraine qualification for EuroBasket 2025, making potential revenge matches particularly meaningful.
Do Ukraine have a realistic World Cup chance? Absolutely. If they win their pre-qualification group, they'll face a competitive but manageable qualification path. Even if Spain and Greece secure two spots through their depth of talent and occasional EuroLeague reinforcements, the third ticket remains very much up for grabs among relatively equal competitors.
The qualification draw results can be considered favorable for Ukraine—provided they handle business in pre-qualification first. Their recent form has been concerning, but the path to Qatar 2027 remains open if they can rediscover their rhythm under Bagatskis' leadership. Can they seize this opportunity?
